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This chart shows the
relationship between the population distribution of DBP and the incidence (number of new
events / unit of time) of stroke. As you can see, there is no point at which stroke
suddenly becomes much more likely. Instead it increases in a smooth geometric fashion, but
the higher DBP is the greater the incidence, and therefore individual risk, that stroke
will occur. This isn't really very surprising and is the case with many different
biological measures used n medicine. However, the problem arises when, as a doctor, you
have to make a decision to treat or not, the raised blood pressure. This is a problem
because most treatments are not benign, that is, they carry a risk (of complications,
side-effects, loss of quality of life, and in some cases even death). The doctor is then
faced with the complex decision of determining the point at which treatment risk is less
than risk from stroke. You can probably prevent almost all cases of stroke by screening
all people and treating anyone with a DBP >60 mmHg. However, most of those people you
treat would never have had a stroke any way. The number needed to treat (NNT) (number of
people that are needed to be treated to prevent one occurrence of the problem) would be
very high. The higher the NNT, the less cost-effective is the treatment. It would cost a
great deal, both financially and in terms of loss of quality of life (QoL) that it would
be quite unacceptable to do so. Instead, an arbitrary decision is made to choose the
cut-off point at 90mmHg because thereafter risk of stroke rises increasingly steeply and
only a relatively small proportion of patients would have a DBP of this value or greater. |