Many websites have assumed, through videos and articles, that the end of the world is near and that a huge earthquake will destroy planet Earth on 26 September 2011. Many people took this for granted and panicked. Scientifically, the story begins on 10 December 2010, when Russian astronomer Leonid Elenin observed and discovered a new comet, Elenin comet; its scientific name in astronomical sheets is “C/2010_X1”. Comets are icy bodies orbiting the Sun every now and then, Halley’s comet is the most famous as it orbits the Sun once every 67 years.

According to astronomical standards, Elenin comet is very small with a diameter 3-5 km, it was 647 million km far from Earth December 2010. Like the rest, this comet is getting closer to the Sun day after day and a tail of gases begins to appear in it. As it gets closer to the sun, a part of its surface evaporates and its tail increases, therefore it gets closer to planet Earth. On 4 May 2010, the comet was 247 million km far from Earth and is getting closer day after day, it will become closest to planet earth on 16 October 2011 (inauguration of Bibliotheca Alexandrina 2002), by then, it will be 35 million km away then it will keep moving away again after reaching the closest point to the Sun, then it starts its journey to leave the solar system, then it returns after 10,000 years which is its life cycle around the Sun.

Elenin comet will be far from Earth 90 times the distance between the Earth and the Moon. According to NASA scientists, the comet’s size in comparison to Earth’s size is like a flee compared to a huge ship in the ocean. If we applied Newton’s law of gravity, the effect of this comet on Earth will be one over billion from the gravity between the earth and the moon, as known the gravity between the moon and the Earth is the reason behind tides.

The reader may ask why is specifically 26 September assigned for this earthquake as long as the comet will be very close to planet Earth on 16 October? The answer is that on that day; the Earth, the comet and the Sun will be aligned; but will the earthquake hit Earth on that day? The answer is “No”, according to the comets specifications and the laws of geology that explains the earthquake causes.

A media propaganda also happened during 1997, when Hale-Bopp comet comes near to planet Earth and during 1994 when Shoemaker-Levy comet comes near to planet Earth and hits Jupiter.

Some journalists have exaggerated the event and assume that the comet will change the Earth’s axis rotation and change the direction of the Earth’s magnetic field resulting in melting ice on Mars, send severe storms to Saturn and causes a huge earthquake on our Earth. All these are just assumptions and have no scientific background at all, according to the laws of physics and celestial mechanics, which are used in launching satellites since the fifties until now, the comet Elenin will not cause anything at all according to its size and the distance it will be from Earth.

Dr.Omar Fikry
Planetarium Science Center
Bibliotheca Alexandrina