The Australian Bureau of Statistics generates population estimates and projections for the total Australian population and for the Indigenous population. The estimates and projections for the total population are calculated using standard demographic methods which adjust for natural increase (the net change due to births and deaths) and net migration. The starting point is the count from the most recent Census, which is adjusted for the estimated under-count and for Australians who were away overseas at the time of the Census. (Overseas visitors to Australia are excluded.)

The estimates and projections for the Indigenous population cannot be done in the same way, because the information on births, deaths and migration is not adequate. This is because of incomplete identification of Indigenous people in the relevant administrative data collections (this will be discussed at greater length a little later in this lecture). As a result, a different method is used, and the resulting estimates and projections are labelled as "experimental". (For more information about this method, see Cunningham J & Paradies Y, 2000, Occasional Paper: Mortality of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Australians, 1997. ABS cat. no. 3315.0, Australian Bureau of Statistics, Canberra. Available on-line at http://www.abs.gov.au/ Ausstats/
ABS%40.nsf/525a1b9402141235ca
25682000146abc/7dfa0774613c8e16
ca2568ba001960ca!OpenDocument)

Experimental estimates and projections of the Indigenous population by age and sex are available nationally, for States and Territories, and for 36 sub-state regions (called Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Commission regions). However, they are not yet available at small area level.