30-day mortality estimated as estimated from a sample from the GUSTO-I trial containing 785 patients, and evaluated in an independent sample of other hospitals in the GUSTO-I trial containing 20,318 patients of whom 1428 died (7.0%).

We note that the average actual probability corresponds reasonably well to the predicted probability, although high predictions are somewhat too high (e.g. 30% predicted, 25% actual).

The discriminative ability was reasonable, as appears from the distribution of predictions (shown at the bottom), and the spread of the 10 groups according to predicted probability (triangles). The area under the ROC curve was 0.77 at apparent validation and 0.74 at external (in fact: spatial) validation.