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It would seem that more accurate data would
result in more accurate assessment. However, it is questionable whether the
cost in time and effort to gather absolutely accurate data actually
increases the value of the outcome. The longer it takes to produce the
assessment the greater the missed opportunities to communicate your message.
Along with that reality, you should consider that few disasters exactly
replicate the previous event, even if the event is of the same type. The
natural variability of events within the same class of disasters makes a
reasonable estimate, based on a level of detail that assures you have
probably bracketed the problem, as good as a perfect assessment. |