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Mathematical
models such as those developed by the Actuarial Society of Southern Africa
(www.assa.org.za) and other institutions enable us to extrapolate data from women
attending ANC to the general population and then produce models depicting the likely
future course of the epidemic. The above graph represents the Scenario 325 model created by Metropolitan Life. In 2001 it was estimated that 4.7 million South Africans (2.5 million women and 2.2 million men) were infected with HIV. It is projected that these figures will rise to 6 million by the year 2010. The implications and impact of such infection rates are serious, and will be felt at all levels and in all sectors. More information on the Metropolitan Life models can be obtained from their website: www.redribbon.co.za |