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However, a sizeable proportion of patients may
never progress to cirrhosis. In patients with minimal or no elevations in
serum alanine aminotransferase (ALT) and aspartate aminotransferase (AST) levels and
milder degrees of necroinflammation, it was difficult to show any progression during the
average of 4 years of follow-up. Similar findings have recently been reported in
longitudinal studies of patients with normal serum ALT levels [16]. These results
reinforce the recommendation that patients with mild disease activity and scant hepatic
fibrosis can delay therapy for hepatitis C until therapeutics improve and regimens are
available that are more effective and have fewer side effects [2]. The rate of fibrosis
progression is higher among older patients, those with higher serum ALT and AST levels,
and those with the most extensive periportal necrosis on initial liver biopsy. For
untreated chronic HCV patients, the rates of fibrosis progression was estimated to be in
the range of 0.297 and 0.231 fibrosis units per year, as assessed for a group of 70
patients with 170 liver biopsies and a group of 58 control patients used in randomized
trials with 116 biopsies [17]. In the study of Ghany et
al. (123 chronic HCV pts), the rate of fibrosis progression was found to be
much lower (about 0.12 fibrosis units per year), [2]. A striking finding in this study was
the lack of correlation between results of cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses.
Cross-sectional analysis based on the initial liver biopsy and historical estimates of
disease duration yielded a 4-fold higher rate of fibrosis progression than did
longitudinal data based on changes between biopsies. This discrepancy was probably due to
the inaccuracy in determining the time of onset of infection, which is needed to calculate
rate of progression and, perhaps more importantly, the lack of linearity in fibrosis
progression. Thus, fibrosis may progress nonlinearly in fits and starts, progressing more
rapidly at specific times, perhaps during flares of disease. In addition, progression of
fibrosis may not be linear in the same manner as the scoring system, in that progression
from stage 0 to 1 may take longer than from stage 3 or 4 or vice versa [2, 18-21]. |